The case for a Dutch fossil fuel transition roadmap

The Netherlands is updating its national energy plan. A credible fossil fuel exit strategy must be a part of it.

Guest blog by Yvo de Boer, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Originally published on Backchannel here.

When I led the UN Climate Change Secretariat during the Copenhagen talks, climate change was still treated by many as a far off risk. Today, it is an immediate economic and physical being felt in every corner of the globe.

Four consecutive extreme heat waves were responsible for at least 35,000 excess casualties in Europe, and preliminary estimates show between €15 billion and €19 billion in direct damages from fires in southern Europe.

Earlier this year in Santa Marta, Colombia, the Netherlands co-hosted the first global forum dedicated to the transition away from fossil fuels.

It was a bold step that helped accelerate a vital international conversation. But our global voice is only as strong as our progress at home. To stay credible, the Netherlands must now deliver on one of Santa Marta’s primary takeaways: publishing a clear, predictable domestic roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.

For a nation built on a delta, this is not a gesture of diplomatic goodwill—it is a matter of economic survival, competitiveness, and national security.

Protecting our delta and livelihoods

First, we must acknowledge what is directly at stake. We live in a low-lying country where 26% of our land sits below sea level, and roughly 70% of our national GDP is generated in areas vulnerable to flooding.

Climate impacts are already hitting our bottom line today. Look at our trade arteries: prolonged summer droughts regularly drop Rhine water levels to record lows, currently tripling shipping costs out of Rotterdam and choking European supply chains. As a maritime nation that relies on open waters and reliable trade, we cannot credibly advocate for global climate resilience abroad while remaining dependent on the very fossil fuels that threaten our coastline and livelihoods.

Giving Dutch business and investors predictability

Second, our economy needs certainty. As a historic trading nation, the Netherlands knows that market unpredictability is the enemy of investment. Dutch businesses need a clear, realistic blueprint for the future.

Major Dutch financial institutions are already sounding the alarm. Recent analysis from Dutch banking experts warns that extreme heatwaves and climate shocks could wipe out annual economic growth across the Netherlands and the wider European Union, creating a self-inflicted economic doom loop.

A clear transition roadmap breaks that cycle. It gives investors the long-term certainty required to deploy capital, sets realistic timelines for our heavy industry, and ensures the shift away from fossil fuels is an orderly economic modernization rather than a series of chaotic market shocks.

The Netherlands is also a bellwether for the EU. A clear domestic roadmap will allow the Netherlands to model for other Member States how to resolve grid limits, phase out fossil production and subsidies, and maintain industrial strength.

Securing our energy sovereignty

Finally, Europe’s top priority today is energy security. The Netherlands proved how rapidly it can adapt when we drastically cut our reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.

However, swapping one imported fossil fuel for another is only a temporary patch. True energy security means producing our own energy. Every gigawatt of home-grown wind and solar keeps billions of Euros circulating inside the Dutch economy rather than sending capital overseas to volatile fuel exporters. We cannot afford to return to the old days of dangerous energy dependence.

The path forward

The era of high-level diplomatic pledges has served its purpose; the task now is execution. The Dutch government must include an ambitious roadmap in its upcoming National Energy System Plan (NPE). By embedding a transparent, data-driven transition strategy into the NPE ahead of COP31, the Netherlands can protect its low-lying territory, give our industries long-term certainty, and provide the international community with a practical model for managed decarbonization. It is time to bring our climate leadership back home.

Yvo de Boer served as the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC from 2006 to 2010 and previously held senior diplomatic and policy roles in the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM). He also led the Global Green Growth Institute from 2010 to 2014 and is currently Board Chair of the Carbon Trust.